Simulation – What a Bother!

I don’t know why so many people waste so much time using simulation. I just ask Joe. Joe has worked here for 38 years and he’s seen it all. Joe is always willing to take the time to tell me how that proposed system or new process will work, because he knows how well it worked or didn’t work the last time we tried something similar.

Yea, things may be different now, but the technology is about the same right? And our supply chain isn’t changing. And customer demands are the same as they were 20 years ago. And Joe’s not going anywhere … I’m sure that rumor about Joe retiring next year is just a rumor – he wouldn’t leave us hanging like that.

Well if Joe does leave I’ll just use spreadsheets. I’m pretty good at Excel. I even know how to link multiple worksheets together and get totals, averages and even charts. So I can certainly capture enough of the details to predict system performance. There isn’t that much interaction between different system components. I can figure out how to deal with seasonal variation in a spreadsheet. Our equipment, suppliers, and people are pretty reliable so there is no reason I should have to deal with things like equipment downtime, late materials, and no-shows – they probably don’t have much impact on my system.

If I need to, maybe I can figure out how to use analytical techniques like queueing theory or linear programming. After all, there is nothing complex about my system. And someone once told me that queueing theory is easy if your system is simple enough.

So I’ll let others use simulation to exactly model their complex systems and fully account for variability. Who cares about 3D animation that helps everyone understand the system and better communicate? Not me! I’m not going to bother with any of that simulation stuff.

But hey, if things go wrong and my company goes under, and you happen to see me in the unemployment line, do you think you might bother to offer me a job?

Happy Modeling!
Dave Sturrock
VP Operations, Simio LLC

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